Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia

Polymarket traders put "Lula" at 97.0% on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Bahia". Down 0.7%p from yesterday. $149 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 13 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 4.

Most likely right now
Lula
0.797%
PoliticsVol $149Total volume $8.7KLiquidity $112Kin 1 months (Oct 4)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Lula
97.0%
0.7
Flavio Bolsonaro
1.10%
Clariana Barao
0.15%
Edmilson Costa
0.15%
Escritor Augusto Cury
0.15%
Hertz Dias
0.15%
Pablo Marçal
0.15%
Renan Santos
0.15%
Ronaldo Caiado
0.15%
Rui Costa Pimenta
0.15%
Samara
0.15%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
0.15%
Zema
0.15%

Probability over time

Lula
Flavio Bolsonaro
Clariana Barao
Edmilson Costa
Escritor Augusto Cury
Hertz Dias
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.