Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Lula da Silva 5-10%" at 39.5% on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $779 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 11 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 4.
Most likely right now
Lula da Silva 5-10%
▼1.040%
PoliticsVol $779Total volume $328KLiquidity $228KComments 16in 1 months (Oct 4)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
39.5%
▼1.0
Lula da Silva <5%
24.5%
▲0.5
Lula da Silva 10-15%
19.5%
▼3.9
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7.75%
▲0.7
Lula da Silva 15%+
4.55%
▼1.0
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2.15%
–
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1.35%
–
Other
1.05%
–
Renan Santos Victory
0.65%
–
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
0.35%
–
Ratinho Júnior Victory
0.25%
–
Probability over time
Lula da Silva 5-10%
Lula da Silva <5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
Lula da Silva 15%+
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
