Buttigieg's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?

Polymarket traders put "↑ 8%" at 48.5% on "Buttigieg's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?". $65 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
↑ 8%
–49%
PoliticsVol $65Total volume $65Liquidity $32Kin 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Nov 4 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
↑ 8%
48.5%
–
↑ 10%
6.50%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.