CA-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 20-25%" at 38.5% on "CA-02 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. $116 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 20-25%
▲1.039%
PoliticsVol $116Total volume $303Liquidity $1.5Kin 15 days (Nov 3)
Current probability
Oct 19 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 20-25%
38.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 40-45%
37.5%
–
Democrat 30-35%
37.5%
▼0.5
Democrat 5-15%
37.5%
–
Democrat 15-20%
37.0%
▼1.0
Democrat 45%+
36.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 35-40%
35.5%
▼2.0
Democrat 25-30%
35.0%
▼2.5
Democrat 0-5%
32.5%
▲27.0
Republican Wins
27.0%
▼10.0
Probability over time
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 5-15%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 45%+
2026-09-03 ~ 2026-10-19 · y-axis %
