CA-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 5-10%" at 49.3% on "CA-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 3.3%p from yesterday. $560 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 5-10%
3.349%
PoliticsVol $560Total volume $560Liquidity $137in 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Sep 7 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 5-10%
49.3%
3.3
Democrat 15-20%
47.8%
1.8
Republican Wins
47.1%
1.7
Democrat 10-15%
45.1%
Democrat 0-5%
42.5%
1.0
Democrat 25-30%
42.4%
0.9
Democrat 30%+
33.4%
10.6
Democrat 20-25%
30.6%
7.8

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.