CA-16 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 65%+" at 42.0% on "CA-16 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.5%p from yesterday. $103 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 65%+
▲2.542%
PoliticsVol $103Total volume $684Liquidity $3.2Kin 4 days (Nov 3)
Current probability
Oct 30 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 65%+
42.0%
▲2.5
Democrat 60-65%
41.5%
▲4.0
Democrat 50-55%
39.5%
▲1.0
Republican Wins
38.2%
▲8.7
Democrat 45-50%
37.5%
▲10.5
Democrat 55-60%
36.5%
▲10.0
Democrat 35-40%
36.5%
–
Democrat 25-35%
36.5%
–
Democrat 40-45%
35.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 0-25%
7.85%
▲3.4
Probability over time
Democrat 65%+
Democrat 60-65%
Democrat 50-55%
Republican Wins
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 55-60%
2026-09-12 ~ 2026-10-30 · y-axis %
