China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Polymarket traders put "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" at 5.4%. Up 0.9%p from yesterday. $11K traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
▲0.95%
PoliticsVol $11KTotal volume $3.5MLiquidity $93Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5.40%
▲0.9

Probability over time

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
02550751008/259/69/139/209/2710/410/9
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.