CT-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 25-30%" at 30.5% on "CT-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 3.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 25-30%
▲3.531%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $19KLiquidity $152Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 25-30%
30.5%
▲3.5
Democrat 30-35%
26.0%
▼3.0
Democrat 35-40%
24.5%
▲0.5
Democrat 40-45%
10.9%
–
Democrat 45-50%
7.20%
▼1.4
Democrat 20-25%
5.70%
–
Democrat 50%+
3.95%
–
Democrat 10-20%
2.95%
–
Republican Wins
0.90%
–
Democrat 0-10%
0.60%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 20-25%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
