Curfew in a major French city by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 20.5% on "Curfew in a major French city by...?". $8.7K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.

Most likely right now
December 31
–21%
PoliticsVol $8.7KTotal volume $8.7KLiquidity $63Kin 2 months (Dec 31)
Current probability

Oct 19 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
20.5%
–
November 15
14.5%
–
October 31
14.0%
–
October 24
7.50%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.