Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit __ by March 31?

Polymarket traders put "↓ 55%" at 23.5% on "Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit __ by March 31?". $130 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Apr 1.

Most likely right now
↓ 55%
–24%
PoliticsVol $130Total volume $110Liquidity $15Kin 5 months (Apr 1)
Current probability

Nov 4 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
↓ 55%
23.5%
–
↓ 50%
20.5%
–
↑ 75%
19.5%
–
↑ 80%
5.50%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.