France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
Polymarket traders put "November 15" at 3.3% on "France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?". $64K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
November 15
–3%
PoliticsVol $64KTotal volume $64KLiquidity $106KComments 2in 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 19 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
November 15
3.30%
–
December 31
2.90%
–
October 31
1.05%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
