French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Most likely right now
Raphaël Glucksmann
13.0100%
PoliticsVol $2.9KTotal volume $71KLiquidity $106KComments 18in 8 months (Apr 23)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Raphaël Glucksmann
100.0%
13.0
Dominique de Villepin
75.0%
24.0
Éric Zemmour
65.0%
Olivier Faure
59.0%
8.1
Bernard Cazeneuve
53.0%
6.0
François Hollande
34.5%
Sébastien Lecornu
14.0%
6.5
François Bayrou
10.8%
4.9
Michel Barnier
10.5%
0.5
Jordan Bardella
8.50%
0.5
Carole Delga
6.50%
4.0
Mathilde Panot
5.70%
Manuel Bompard
5.50%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
4.55%
0.5
Jean Castex
4.50%
Valérie Pécresse
3.50%
0.6
Gérald Darmanin
2.10%
0.9

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.