Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

Polymarket traders put "Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?" at 43.5%. Down 6.5%p from yesterday. $40 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Oct 10.

Most likely right now
Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?
6.544%
PoliticsVol $40Total volume $40Liquidity $104Comments 1in 1 months (Oct 10)
Current probability

Sep 11 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?
43.5%
6.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.