Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Polymarket traders put "December 31, 2027" at 58.0% on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?". Up 17.5%p from yesterday. $8.0K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31, 2027
▲17.558%
PoliticsVol $8.0KTotal volume $2.8MLiquidity $216Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2027
58.0%
▲17.5
June 30, 2027
25.5%
▲2.5
March 31, 2027
20.5%
–
November 30, 2026
6.95%
▲2.8
December 31, 2026
6.50%
–
October 31, 2026
1.50%
–
Probability over time
December 31, 2027
June 30, 2027
March 31, 2027
November 30, 2026
December 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
