How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "8" at 58.1% on "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?". Down 3.6%p from yesterday. $5 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
8
▼3.658%
PoliticsVol $5Total volume $1.7MLiquidity $72KComments 36in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
8
58.1%
▼3.6
9
32.4%
▼0.5
10
10.0%
▲5.9
11
0.90%
–
12
0.85%
–
13
0.45%
–
15+
0.35%
–
14
0.15%
–
Probability over time
8
9
10
11
12
13
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
