How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?
Polymarket traders put "No vote by February 28" at 48.5% on "How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?". $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 11 possible outcomes. It resolves on Mar 1.
Most likely right now
No vote by February 28
–49%
PoliticsVol $1.4KTotal volume $1.4KLiquidity $5.5Kin 4 months (Mar 1)
Current probability
Nov 5 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
No vote by February 28
48.5%
–
51–53
23.0%
▼13.5
57–59
19.0%
▼4.0
66–68
15.5%
▼21.5
54–56
13.5%
▼11.5
60–62
13.0%
▼13.0
69–71
13.0%
▼20.0
63–65
8.00%
▼16.5
47 or fewer
6.50%
▼20.0
48–50
6.50%
▼23.5
72+
5.00%
▼29.0
Probability over time
No vote by February 28
51–53
57–59
66–68
54–56
60–62
2026-11-04 ~ 2026-11-05 · y-axis %
