How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "400-500k" at 62.5% on "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?". Up 11.0%p from yesterday. $38 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Mar 1.
Most likely right now
400-500k
▲11.063%
PoliticsVol $38Total volume $130KLiquidity $92Kin 5 months (Mar 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
400-500k
62.5%
▲11.0
500-600k
12.3%
–
300-400k
8.00%
▼2.5
200-300k
2.40%
–
600-700k
1.90%
–
900k-1m
1.70%
–
<200k
1.65%
–
700-800k
1.40%
–
>1m
1.15%
▲0.7
800-900k
0.35%
–
Probability over time
400-500k
500-600k
300-400k
200-300k
600-700k
900k-1m
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
