IL-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 45-50%" at 33.5% on "IL-12 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 5.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 45-50%
5.534%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $69Liquidity $1.7Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 45-50%
33.5%
5.5
Republican 0-10%
32.0%
Republican 40-45%
31.5%
8.0
Republican 20-25%
26.5%
5.5
Republican 35-40%
25.5%
3.5
Republican 25-30%
25.5%
4.0
Republican 10-20%
25.5%
1.5
Republican 50%+
25.0%
2.0
Republican 30-35%
23.5%
Democrat Wins
17.1%
13.9

Probability over time

Republican 45-50%
Republican 0-10%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 25-30%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.