Illinois Senate Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 25-30%" at 21.5% on "Illinois Senate Election Margin of Victory". Down 2.5%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 25-30%
2.522%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $1.9KLiquidity $63Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 25-30%
21.5%
2.5
Democrat 20-25%
21.0%
1.5
Democrat 15-20%
16.5%
0.5
Democrat 10-15%
10.5%
3.0
Democrat 30-35%
10.5%
3.0
Democrat 5-10%
5.25%
1.3
Democrat 0-5%
4.50%
Democrat 35%+
3.95%
1.1
Republican Wins
2.15%
1.8

Probability over time

Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 5-10%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.