Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

Polymarket traders put "<2.5%" at 46.0% on "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?". Up 20.0%p from yesterday. $20 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 30.

Most likely right now
<2.5%
20.046%
PoliticsVol $20Total volume $20Liquidity $790in 3 months (Nov 30)
Current probability

Sep 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
<2.5%
46.0%
20.0
4-5%
36.0%
10.0
3.25-4%
34.0%
10.5
5%+
34.0%
7.5
2.5-3.25%
31.5%
5.5

Probability over time

<2.5%
4-5%
3.25-4%
5%+
2.5-3.25%
02550751009/99/10
2026-09-09 ~ 2026-09-10 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.