US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Polymarket traders put "September 30" at 67.5% on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)". $49K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.
Most likely right now
September 30
–68%
PoliticsVol $49KTotal volume $49KLiquidity $112KComments 3in 28 days (Sep 30)
Current probability
Sep 3 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
September 30
67.5%
–
September 18
59.5%
–
September 11
51.0%
–
September 7
47.5%
–
September 4
28.5%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
