Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Polymarket traders put "October 18" at 87.0% on "Israel military action against Lebanon on...?". $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 30 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
October 18
–87%
PoliticsVol $1.7KTotal volume $1.7KLiquidity $4.8Kin 1 months (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 2 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 18
87.0%
–
October 11
85.5%
–
October 19
85.5%
–
October 10
84.5%
–
October 3
83.5%
–
October 12
83.5%
–
October 15
82.5%
–
October 17
82.5%
–
October 5
80.5%
–
October 14
80.5%
–
October 29
80.5%
–
October 9
80.0%
–
October 13
80.0%
–
October 4
74.5%
–
October 7
74.5%
–
October 16
73.5%
–
October 26
73.5%
–
October 31
72.5%
–
October 8
72.0%
–
October 22
71.5%
–
October 23
70.0%
–
October 30
70.0%
–
October 20
69.0%
–
October 27
69.0%
–
October 25
65.5%
–
October 28
65.0%
–
October 21
60.5%
–
October 2
60.0%
–
October 6
52.0%
–
October 24
39.5%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
