Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

Polymarket traders put "September 3" at 87.5% on "Israel military action against Lebanon on...?". $29K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 7 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 1.

Most likely right now
September 3
88%
PoliticsVol $29KTotal volume $29KLiquidity $3.1Kin 27 days (Oct 1)
Current probability

Sep 4 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
September 3
87.5%
September 13
52.5%
September 22
49.5%
September 6
49.0%
September 19
49.0%
September 29
49.0%
September 12
48.5%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.