Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Polymarket traders put "September 30" at 35.0% on "Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)". Down 14.5%p from yesterday. $72 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.
Most likely right now
September 30
▼14.535%
PoliticsVol $72Total volume $72Liquidity $23Kin 27 days (Sep 30)
Current probability
Sep 4 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
September 30
35.0%
▼14.5
September 18
24.5%
▼25.5
September 11
21.5%
▼28.0
September 7
13.0%
▼36.0
September 4
5.50%
▼44.0
Probability over time
September 30
September 18
September 11
September 7
September 4
2026-09-03 ~ 2026-09-04 · y-axis %
