Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
Polymarket traders put "<1 hour" at 51.0% on "Longest GitHub critical incident in October?". $40 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
<1 hour
–51%
TechVol $40Total volume $40Liquidity $849in 1 months (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
<1 hour
51.0%
–
1-3 hours
32.0%
–
6-12 hours
30.0%
–
12+ hours
26.5%
–
3-6 hours
23.5%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
