Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

Polymarket traders put "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" at 41.8%. Up 1.5%p from yesterday. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
▲1.542%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $2.1KLiquidity $122Comments 1in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
41.8%
▲1.5

Probability over time

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
02550751008/259/69/139/209/2910/810/9
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.