Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Polymarket traders put "October 15" at 28.5% on "Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?". $773 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 16.

Most likely right now
October 15
–28%
PoliticsVol $773Total volume $773Liquidity $561in 21 days (Oct 16)
Current probability

Sep 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
October 15
28.5%
–
September 30
16.8%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.