Massachusetts Senate Election Margin of Victory

Most likely right now
Democrat 30-35%
6.521%
PoliticsVol $634Total volume $5.0KLiquidity $90Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 30-35%
20.5%
6.5
Democrat 35-40%
16.5%
0.5
Democrat 25-30%
15.0%
2.0
Democrat 20-25%
10.5%
2.0
Democrat 40-45%
10.5%
3.0
Democrat 45%+
5.50%
1.0
Democrat 15-20%
4.55%
1.8
Democrat 10-15%
2.50%
Democrat 0-10%
1.80%
Republican Wins
1.40%
0.8

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.