MD-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 35-40%" at 27.0% on "MD-02 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 7.5%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 35-40%
7.527%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $195Liquidity $1.4Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 35-40%
27.0%
7.5
Democrat 30-35%
27.0%
0.5
Democrat 25-30%
26.5%
2.5
Democrat 10-15%
25.0%
7.5
Democrat 20-25%
24.0%
6.5
Democrat 15-20%
23.5%
4.0
Democrat 0-10%
23.0%
10.5
Democrat 40%+
21.0%
7.5
Republican Wins
4.00%
2.5

Probability over time

Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 15-20%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.