MD-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Most likely right now
Democrat 30-35%
0.533%
PoliticsVol $20Total volume $20Liquidity $1.5Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 30-35%
33.0%
0.5
Democrat 55%+
24.5%
12.0
Democrat 50-55%
24.5%
15.0
Democrat 40-45%
24.5%
14.5
Democrat 35-40%
24.5%
11.0
Democrat 25-30%
24.5%
11.5
Democrat 15-25%
23.5%
12.0
Democrat 45-50%
20.5%
12.0
Democrat 0-15%
20.0%
15.0
Republican Wins
8.00%
13.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.