Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?

Polymarket traders put "Rui Costa" at 37.5% on "Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?". $551 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Mar 1.

Most likely right now
Rui Costa
–38%
PoliticsVol $551Total volume $551Liquidity $1.2Kin 4 months (Mar 1)
Current probability

Oct 31 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Rui Costa
37.5%
–
José Múcio
37.0%
–
Celso Amorim
36.5%
–
Aloizio Mercadante
36.5%
–
Jaques Wagner
6.00%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.