Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released on...?
Polymarket traders put "October 23" at 17.9% on "Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released on...?". Down 17.5%p from yesterday. $1.8K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 32 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
October 23
▼17.518%
TechVol $1.8KTotal volume $2.0KLiquidity $9.3Kin 1 months (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 2 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 23
17.9%
▼17.5
October 6
17.5%
▼26.5
October 5
16.8%
▼27.3
October 9
16.5%
▼27.5
October 15
16.5%
▲3.0
October 18
16.4%
▼19.1
October 17
16.4%
▼8.6
October 4
15.8%
▼28.1
October 8
15.8%
▼28.2
On or prior to October 1
14.5%
▼11.0
October 13
13.5%
▼22.0
October 31
12.9%
▼12.1
October 12
12.6%
▼22.9
October 26
11.7%
▼23.8
October 30
11.7%
▼13.3
October 7
11.6%
▼32.5
October 21
11.5%
▼24.0
October 28
11.5%
▼2.0
October 29
11.3%
▼2.3
October 20
11.0%
▼14.0
October 27
11.0%
▼24.5
October 25
6.10%
▼29.4
No release by October 31
6.00%
▼19.5
October 2
5.65%
▼43.9
October 3
4.50%
▼45.0
October 24
4.25%
▼9.3
October 22
4.15%
▼31.4
October 14
4.05%
▼31.4
October 19
4.05%
▼31.4
October 16
4.00%
▼9.5
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
