Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?
Polymarket traders put "No release by November 30" at 25.5% on "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?". $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 32 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.
Most likely right now
No release by November 30
–26%
TechVol $1.9KTotal volume $1.9KLiquidity $2.2Kin 1 months (Dec 1)
Current probability
Oct 29 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
No release by November 30
25.5%
–
November 10
15.0%
–
November 24
14.5%
–
November 4
13.0%
–
November 17
13.0%
–
November 11
12.5%
–
November 15
12.5%
–
November 18
12.5%
–
November 16
12.0%
–
November 19
12.0%
–
November 8
11.5%
–
November 26
11.5%
–
November 28
11.5%
–
November 1
11.0%
–
November 7
11.0%
–
November 13
11.0%
–
November 22
11.0%
–
November 25
11.0%
–
November 29
11.0%
–
November 6
10.5%
–
November 9
10.5%
–
November 12
10.5%
–
November 20
10.5%
–
November 23
10.5%
–
November 27
10.5%
–
November 30
10.5%
–
On or prior to October 31
10.0%
–
November 3
9.50%
–
November 14
8.50%
–
November 5
8.00%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
