Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Polymarket traders put "Marine Le Pen" at 91.0% on "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?". $18K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 37 possible outcomes. It resolves on Apr 19.
Most likely right now
Marine Le Pen
–91%
PoliticsVol $18KTotal volume $323KLiquidity $1.0MComments 4in 6 months (Apr 19)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Marine Le Pen
91.0%
–
Édouard Philippe
46.0%
▼4.5
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
40.5%
▼2.0
Other
32.5%
▲0.5
David Lisnard
14.1%
▼0.8
François Ruffin
12.2%
▲7.0
Raphaël Glucksmann
6.95%
▲2.6
Bruno Retailleau
6.50%
–
François Hollande
6.50%
–
Gabriel Attal
6.40%
▲0.8
Marine Tondelier
5.70%
▲1.9
Clémence Guetté
5.60%
▼1.4
Ségolène Royal
5.40%
▼2.9
Jordan Bardella
5.00%
–
Dominique de Villepin
5.00%
–
Fabien Roussel
4.90%
▲2.1
Sébastien Lecornu
4.85%
▲1.3
Clémentine Autain
4.70%
▲1.1
Manuel Bompard
4.65%
–
Juan Branco
4.55%
▲0.9
Éric Zemmour
4.45%
–
Élisabeth Borne
4.45%
–
Gérald Darmanin
4.45%
–
Sarah Knafo
4.40%
–
Olivier Faure
4.30%
–
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
3.75%
–
Bernard Cazeneuve
3.05%
–
François Asselineau
3.00%
▲0.7
Yaël Braun-Pivet
3.00%
–
François Bayrou
2.85%
▼1.1
Probability over time
Marine Le Pen
Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Other
David Lisnard
François Ruffin
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
