Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Most likely right now
Marine Le Pen
84%
PoliticsVol $5.6KTotal volume $95KLiquidity $677KComments 4in 8 months (Apr 30)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Marine Le Pen
84.0%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
44.5%
2.0
Édouard Philippe
38.0%
0.5
Other
32.5%
0.5
Carole Delga
25.7%
23.9
Clémentine Autain
17.3%
16.0
Manuel Bompard
16.2%
13.8
Raphaël Glucksmann
9.80%
3.8
Jordan Bardella
8.50%
2.0
Gabriel Attal
7.60%
3.5
Olivier Faure
7.55%
2.8
François Bayrou
7.55%
3.1
Élisabeth Borne
6.80%
3.1
Juan Branco
6.00%
4.4
Bernard Cazeneuve
4.50%
Sébastien Lecornu
4.50%
Gérald Darmanin
4.05%
François Hollande
4.00%
Dominique de Villepin
4.00%
Mathilde Panot
3.65%
Fabien Roussel
3.55%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
3.55%
Bruno Retailleau
3.15%
Éric Zemmour
3.10%
David Lisnard
2.70%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
2.45%
François Ruffin
2.25%
Laurent Wauquiez
2.00%
François Asselineau
1.80%
Sarah Knafo
1.80%
1.1

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.