Next leader out of power before 2027?
Polymarket traders put "None before 2027" at 39.5% on "Next leader out of power before 2027?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $17K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 22 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
None before 2027
▼1.040%
PoliticsVol $17KTotal volume $918KLiquidity $657Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
None before 2027
39.5%
▼1.0
Netanyahu - Israel PM
26.0%
▼0.5
Sánchez - Spanish PM
17.9%
▼0.9
Lecornu - France PM
5.35%
–
Abbas - President of Palestine
2.70%
▲1.3
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
2.05%
–
Merz - German Chancellor
1.40%
–
Takaichi - Japan PM
1.35%
–
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1.25%
▲0.6
Trump - USA President
1.05%
–
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1.00%
▲0.7
Macron - France President
0.95%
▲0.8
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
0.75%
–
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
0.65%
–
al-Sharaa - Syria President
0.65%
–
Putin - Russia President
0.50%
–
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
0.50%
–
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
0.45%
–
Milei - Argentina President
0.40%
–
Newsom - California Governor
0.20%
–
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
0.20%
–
Albanese - Australia PM
0.15%
–
Probability over time
None before 2027
Netanyahu - Israel PM
Sánchez - Spanish PM
Lecornu - France PM
Abbas - President of Palestine
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
