Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Most likely right now
Netanyahu - Israel PM
▼3.037%
PoliticsVol $858Total volume $216KLiquidity $311Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
36.5%
▼3.0
None before 2027
33.5%
–
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
7.05%
–
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
3.25%
–
Merz - German Chancellor
3.15%
–
Abbas - President of Palestine
2.50%
–
Trump - USA President
2.35%
▲0.5
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
2.25%
▼1.5
Macron - France President
2.00%
–
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2.00%
▼1.1
Sánchez - Spanish PM
1.95%
–
Lecornu - France PM
1.70%
–
Putin - Russia President
1.45%
–
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
1.35%
–
Takaichi - Japan PM
0.70%
–
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
0.60%
–
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
0.55%
–
Albanese - Australia PM
0.55%
–
al-Sharaa - Syria President
0.40%
–
Newsom - California Governor
0.35%
–
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
0.35%
–
Milei - Argentina President
0.30%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
