NJ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 25-30%" at 19.9% on "NJ-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Unchanged from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 25-30%
–20%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $11KLiquidity $113Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 25-30%
19.9%
–
Republican 20-25%
18.0%
–
Republican 15-20%
17.5%
▼9.3
Republican 30-35%
12.7%
–
Republican 35-40%
12.5%
–
Republican 10-15%
5.80%
–
Republican 0-10%
5.50%
–
Republican 40%+
0.55%
–
Democrat Wins
0.15%
–
Probability over time
Republican 25-30%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 10-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
