NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Polymarket traders put "National 0-5%" at 31.0% on "NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?". Down 2.5%p from yesterday. $55 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 8.
Most likely right now
National 0-5%
▼2.531%
PoliticsVol $55Total volume $21KLiquidity $52Kin 29 days (Nov 8)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
National 0-5%
31.0%
▼2.5
Labour 0-5%
26.0%
▲0.5
Labour 10-15%
20.0%
▲12.0
National 5-10%
18.9%
▲0.7
Labour 5-10%
12.0%
▲0.5
Labour 15%+
8.85%
–
National 10%+
4.00%
–
Another Party Wins
0.40%
–
Probability over time
National 0-5%
Labour 0-5%
Labour 10-15%
National 5-10%
Labour 5-10%
Labour 15%+
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
