NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Most likely right now
National 0-5%
▲8.523%
PoliticsVol $152Total volume $19KLiquidity $140Kin 2 months (Nov 7)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
National 0-5%
22.5%
▲8.5
Labour 0-5%
20.5%
▼3.5
Labour 10-15%
14.0%
▼0.5
Labour 5-10%
13.5%
▼1.0
National 5-10%
7.35%
▼0.9
Labour 15%+
0.65%
▼5.2
National 10%+
0.35%
▼1.7
Another Party Wins
0.30%
▼0.9
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
