PA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 25-30%" at 29.5% on "PA-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.0%p from yesterday. $20 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 25-30%
▲2.030%
PoliticsVol $20Total volume $9.4KLiquidity $75Kin 26 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 25-30%
29.5%
▲2.0
Democrat 30-35%
24.5%
–
Democrat 20-25%
23.5%
▲2.0
Democrat 35-40%
17.5%
▲3.5
Democrat 15-20%
10.4%
▲6.2
Democrat 0-10%
9.05%
▲0.8
Democrat 10-15%
6.50%
▼2.0
Democrat 40%+
3.25%
–
Republican Wins
0.55%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 0-10%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
