Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 20.0% on "Panama Canal effectively closed by...?". $57 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
–20%
PoliticsVol $57Total volume $57Liquidity $317in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 11 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
20.0%
–
November 30
19.0%
–
October 15
0.50%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.