Russia nuclear test by...?
Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–6%
PoliticsVol $37KTotal volume $6.2MLiquidity $52KComments 8in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
6.05%
–
September 30, 2026
1.75%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
