Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Polymarket traders put "December 31, 2027" at 69.0% on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?". $23K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 15 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jul 1.
Most likely right now
December 31, 2027
–69%
PoliticsVol $23KTotal volume $8.4MLiquidity $1.2MComments 250in 9 months (Jul 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2027
69.0%
–
November 30, 2027
66.5%
▼0.5
October 31, 2027
63.5%
▲1.0
September 30, 2027
61.5%
–
August 31, 2027
57.5%
▲0.5
July 31, 2027
53.0%
▼1.0
June 30, 2027
50.5%
▲1.0
May 31, 2027
46.5%
▼0.5
April 30, 2027
37.5%
▼0.5
March 31, 2027
32.5%
–
February 28, 2027
25.5%
▲0.5
January 31, 2027
22.5%
–
December 31
14.5%
▲1.0
November 30
8.00%
▼0.5
October 31
4.15%
–
Probability over time
December 31, 2027
November 30, 2027
October 31, 2027
September 30, 2027
August 31, 2027
July 31, 2027
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
