Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Most likely right now
December 31
16%
PoliticsVol $2.7KTotal volume $1.1MLiquidity $348KComments 33in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
15.5%
October 31
7.50%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.