Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?

Polymarket traders put "November 3" at 100.0% on "Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?". $94K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 1.

Most likely right now
November 3
–100%
PoliticsVol $94KTotal volume $94KLiquidity $5.7Kin 27 days (Dec 1)
Current probability

Nov 4 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
November 3
100.0%
–
November 5
88.8%
▲38.9
November 4
69.1%
▲10.1
November 6
68.5%
▲18.5
November 10
56.5%
▲6.5
November 8
48.4%
▼1.6
November 12
47.4%
▼2.5
November 23
47.0%
▼3.0

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.