Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

Polymarket traders put "September 30" at 39.5% on "Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?". Down 19.5%p from yesterday. $376 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
September 30
19.540%
PoliticsVol $376Total volume $4.7KLiquidity $539in 1 months (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
September 30
39.5%
19.5
August 31
4.55%
2.1

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.