Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
Polymarket traders put "War Material amendment" at 59.5% on "Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 29.
Most likely right now
War Material amendment
▼1.560%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $14KLiquidity $34Kin 2 months (Nov 29)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
War Material amendment
59.5%
▼1.5
VAT federal decree
54.0%
–
Fireworks restriction initiative
21.5%
▲2.5
Marriage taxation initiative
12.0%
▲0.5
Probability over time
War Material amendment
VAT federal decree
Fireworks restriction initiative
Marriage taxation initiative
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
