US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket traders put "November 5" at 95.4% on "US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?". $338K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
November 5
–95%
PoliticsVol $338KTotal volume $338KLiquidity $212KComments 12in 2 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Nov 5 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
November 5
95.4%
–
November 6
89.5%
–
November 8
81.5%
–
November 15
57.5%
–
November 30
42.5%
–
December 31
30.0%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
