US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 39.5% on "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?". Up 2.5%p from yesterday. $55K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31
▲2.540%
PoliticsVol $55KTotal volume $1.7MLiquidity $121KComments 14in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
39.5%
▲2.5
November 30
26.5%
▼0.5
October 31
19.0%
▲2.5
October 15
7.00%
▲0.5
October 7
0.00%
–
Probability over time
December 31
November 30
October 31
October 15
October 7
2026-09-29 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
