US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

Polymarket traders put "September 30" at 17.5% on "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?". Up 0.5%p from yesterday. $69K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 1.

Most likely right now
September 30
0.518%
PoliticsVol $69KTotal volume $743KLiquidity $98KComments 8in 1 months (Oct 1)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
September 30
17.5%
0.5
September 15
10.5%
2.5
August 31
3.40%
1.3

Probability over time

September 30
September 15
August 31
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.