U.S. nuclear test by...?
Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–4%
PoliticsVol $56Total volume $794KLiquidity $29KComments 24in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
4.00%
–
September 30, 2026
1.25%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
