US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 79.5% on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)". $286K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
December 31
–80%
PoliticsVol $286KTotal volume $286KLiquidity $273KComments 5in 2 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Nov 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
79.5%
–
November 30
55.5%
–
November 22
50.5%
–
November 15
39.5%
–
November 8
13.5%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
