UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 20-25%" at 27.4% on "UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 2.8%p from yesterday. $400 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 20-25%
▼2.827%
PoliticsVol $400Total volume $15KLiquidity $79Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 20-25%
27.4%
▼2.8
Republican 25-30%
22.0%
▲7.5
Republican 15-20%
19.0%
▼0.5
Republican 30-35%
13.5%
▼3.0
Republican 35-40%
10.0%
–
Republican 0-5%
9.65%
▼1.2
Republican 40-45%
8.45%
▼2.3
Republican 5-15%
7.25%
▼0.6
Democrat Wins
7.20%
▼0.7
Republican 45%+
1.95%
–
Probability over time
Republican 20-25%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 0-5%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
