UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 15-20%" at 36.5% on "UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 15-20%
▲2.537%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $52Liquidity $1.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 15-20%
36.5%
▲2.5
Republican 40-45%
34.5%
–
Republican 30-35%
31.0%
▲2.0
Republican 25-30%
31.0%
▲10.0
Republican 45%+
24.5%
▼13.0
Republican 5-15%
23.5%
▲5.5
Republican 0-5%
23.0%
▼8.0
Republican 20-25%
22.0%
▼6.5
Republican 35-40%
21.0%
▼2.5
Democrat Wins
6.45%
▲3.4
Probability over time
Republican 15-20%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 45%+
Republican 5-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
